Obama's Coup

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has labeled the chaotic change of leadership in Honduras a "Military Coup". That Clinton dictionary apparently has interesting definitions for words like "coup" and "is". One's opinion of the validity of her view of the situation probably has something to do with what one thinks the definition of "coup" "is". It may be impossible to unravel that chestnut with -two- words seemingly indecipherable, but let's give it a try anyway.

The non-Clinton dictionary that most of us have access to provides the following(courtesy of TheFreeDictionary.com);

Coup (noun)
1. A brilliantly executed stratagem; a triumph.
2. a. A coup d'état.
b. A sudden appropriation of leadership or power; a takeover

Applying this definition to Mrs. Clinton's claims might lead one to infer that the military had at some point "[appropriated] leadership or power" or implemented "a takeover" of the Honduran government. Interestingly enough, the Honduran military was never in control of Honduras or the Honduran government at anytime during the recent ouster of Honduran President Zelaya. So what exactly do we find under the listing of "Coup" in Secretary Clinton's classified government dictionary;

Coup (noun)
1. A constitutional process in which the judicial and legislative bodies of a democratic nation remove Presidents attempting to usurp power for themselves in violation of that nation's constitution.

The military part of Mrs. Clinton's "military coup" comes from the fact that the legitimate government of Honduras ordered the military to remove Zelaya from Honduran soil.

Seriously, the situation, while certainly not a "military coup", may become dangerous. The US response to what is happening could embolden regional elements to the point of real military action. First hand information provided by a co-worker today confirms that the people of Honduras are perplexed by the US response to the removal of President Zelaya. The US has been overwhelmed by the gravity of the Michael Jackson situation so the potential for conflagration in South America has seen little coverage over the weekend. Here is a recap for those that might have missed it;

March 24th 2009: Honduran President Zelaya announces by executive decree that a national referendum will be held prior to June 28, 2009 to create a process to re-write the Honduran constitution. The intent of the referendum is immediately interpreted as a clear attempt by Zelaya to discredit democratic institutions in Honduras and extend his hold on power beyond the constitutional limit of his term.

Tues. June 23rd 2009: The Honduran National Congress passes a law to block Zelaya's referendum.

Wed. June 24th 2009: Zelaya sacks General Romeo Vasquez, head of Honduran armed forces, for refusing to lend logistical support for the June 28 referendum. The chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air force resign in protest to the firing of Vasquez.

Thurs. June 25th 2009: The Honduran Supreme Court annuls Zelaya's executive decree ordering a June 28 referendum. Zelaya vows to hold the referendum in defiance of the courts order. Honduran lawmakers open an investigation to determine if Zelaya's defiance of the Supreme Court order blocking the referendum damaged the rule of law in Honduras. The National Congress of Honduras meets to draft a letter of resignation for Zelaya. Zelaya asks the Organization of American States (OAS) for support. (A lot happened on the 25th but it was totally eclipsed in the US media by the death of Michael Jackson.)

Fri. June 26th 2009: Thousands of Zelaya opponents march in the streets of Tegucigalpa calling for the President's ouster while supporters of Zelaya begin distributing ballots for the referendum. The OAS calls for restraint from all involved parties.

Sat. June 27th 2009: The Supreme Court of Honduras rejects Zelaya's dismissal of General Romeo Vasquez.

Sun. June 28th 2009: Zelaya is forcibly seized by the military under court order and forced to board a plane to Costa Rica. The leader of the National Congress, Roberto Micheletti, is constitutionally confirmed as the new President of Honduras by unanimous congressional vote. Micheletti belongs to the same political party as ex-President Zelaya.

The Obama administration is in the rare company of Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro in denouncing the removal of Zelaya. The danger to Honduras can not be overstated. Hugo Chavez' Venezuelan military is on high alert and Chavez is demanding that Zelaya be returned to power. The energies of Zelaya's internal Honduran agitators combined with the blustering of Chavez, Castro and the OAS will quickly turn Honduras into a tinder box. Obama's support for the reinstatement of Zelaya may give Chavez the perception that he has the moral authority to reinstall Zelaya into the Honduran Presidency by force. Given the unpopularity of Zelaya in Honduras and the prior relationship between Chavez and Zelaya, it is conceivable that this entire episode is part of a larger scheme that may result in Chavez being the power behind the throne in Honduras in the event that Zelaya is reinstated (by whatever means).

Last week we saw Obama's desire for normalized relations with Iran embolden an oppressive regime and weaken the US response to atrocities following the Iranian election scandal. There should be little doubt that Chavez has been watching the US leadership and gauging last week's response to the situation in Iran and the current response to the situation in Honduras. We can only hope that the desire for normalized relations with Venezuela will not cloud the judgment of the administration and weaken another response.